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Hironao Kawashima Professor, Faculty of Science and Technology, Keio University |
1. Trends in ITS
The recent global trend in ITS research has seen a move away from R&D on standalone vehicle and infrastructure technologies towards increased R&D on road-to-vehicle cooperation. I believe that in that sense, the AHS is ahead of its time. For example, the Intelligent Vehicle Initiative, or IVI, is basically following Japan's lead; the Americans involved in IVI research wonder, despite that fact, why so many Japanese researchers are participating in the project. It is because the ideas are Japanese - look at AHS. I think that in this sense, we have entered a new phase.
What I would like to discuss today is the idea that we should perhaps change our concepts a little to accommodate changing times. I have attempted to bring my ideas together under the slogan “A more XXX ITS.”
2. Achievement of Traffic Safety by Spending More Money on ITS
(1) WHO predictions
The World Health Organization, WHO, publishes statistics known as disability-adjusted
life years, or DALYs. Allow me to explain these using traffic accidents as
an example. In traffic accidents some people are killed, some are injured
and might have to spend years in hospital, and still others suffer after-effects
and are unable to return to their normal lives. To produce the DALYs, all
of
these factors are weighted and added, and the results are ranked. (Figure
1)
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Figure 1 |
Looking at HIV/AIDS, we see that while it was ranked second in 1998, it is predicted to drop to tenth in 2020. Traffic accidents are predicted to rise from ninth to third ranking in the same period.
While almost 100 billion yen is spent globally every year on HIV/AIDS research and preventive measures, only around 3.5 billion yen is directed towards traffic accidents. The WHO report which forms my source here urges increased spending on this problem. The 3.5 billion yen I have mentioned is being used exclusively for traffic safety measures in the strict sense - it does not include ITS and the like. I hope that you appreciate what a serious situation this is. (Figure 2)
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Figure 2 |
(2) Changing concepts
Traffic accidents have to date been considered unavoidable chance events. The
idea that this conception must be changed in some way is a trend of the past
five or six years. The WHO (Figure 3) and the OECD (Figure 4) have made their
positions clear. They recommend reexamination of the entire system, from
vehicle manufacture to road design, maintenance and management.
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Figure 3 |
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Figure 4 |
The volume “Transportation, Traffic Safety and Health,” published in the US by Springer-Verlag in 1997, deals with health and traffic safety. This book indicates that in the US, injuries to teenagers leaving them unable to work represent a greater social loss than illness among those in their 60s and 70s which similarly leaves them unable to work. This is not to say that we should simply ignore the situation among people in their 60s and 70s, but stresses the idea that we should employ the concept of social cost and consider more seriously the losses incurred due to inability to work.
(3) Future traffic safety measures and ITS
What
the WHO and other organizations recommend is that first, traffic safety measures
be accorded a higher priority in terms of public policy. In Japan
also I believe they are not granted a very high priority. However, measures
to prevent accidents should not simply be limited to vehicles. We need to
go further, and link these measures to health policy, education policy, crime
policy and social policy.
Clear visions and numerical targets are also important. Sweden has announced that it is pursuing a target of zero fatalities or serious injuries, and in Japan the Koizumi administration has announced that it will attempt to halve fatalities. The big issue following this announcement is to give this scheme high priority in public safety and traffic safety measures.
Against this background, in the past two to three years we have seen the emergence of the Public Safety concept in the US and the e-Safety concept in Europe. In terms of their relationship to ITS, the key technological point of these concepts is communications infrastructure.
3. A More Driver-friendly ITS
(1) Aging and vision
The elderly, myself included, experience a decline in visual acuity, a narrowing
of the field of vision, and a decline in the ability to see moving bodies.
I should mention that we don't have extensive knowledge of how well elderly people can see things from moving vehicles. In my experience it is not always the case that things become visible as one gets closer to them; there are also cases in which things become more difficult to see the closer one gets.
If we check the standards for the height of sign poles on websites, we find that in both Japan and the US, they are around 1.5 m in height. The poles seem a bit too high, but this is presumably to enable the signs to be seen from a distance.
I always find these signs a little hard to see, but I thought that that was just my problem. However, I had a revelation in Nice, in France. The photographs shown in Figures 5 and 6 were taken in Nice, and as you can see, the poles of the signs are very short.
In Figure 5, the red signal in the lower picture is not for pedestrians. It is a signal for vehicles positioned low so it is easy for approaching drivers to see. The difference between the line of sight of a driver in a far-off vehicle and of a driver in an approaching vehicle has been considered in setting the heights and angles of signs.
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Figure 5 |
I didn't have the opportunity to discuss this with anyone involved in traffic regulation in Nice, but the signs and signals seem to have been placed in the positions in which they would be easiest to see.
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Figure 6 |
(2) On-board units and signs
In Japan also, there are numerous examples of
a diverse range of signs being set up in one place, so that it is not possible
to take in their meaning
at a glance. This represents a significant impediment to safe driving.
What I would like to suggest is that we let on-board units shoulder the burden in some places. Depending on the time of the day and a range of other conditions, there are numerous signs that we do not have to pay attention to. I am not just speaking for the elderly when I suggest that making signs visible when it is necessary could be considered a more driver-friendly traffic safety measure.
I believe that there is a considerable amount of interest in this idea even in Europe and the US, but one problem is that there is no database to assist in practical implementation. I would like to see the government give this matter some consideration.
4. A More Non-Japanese-Speaker-Friendly ITS
(1) Imbalance between the number
of overseas visitors to Japan and Japanese traveling overseas
The imbalance between the number of overseas visitors to Japan and the number
of Japanese traveling overseas has been much-discussed recently. Looking
into the issue, we find that there is a difference of a factor of around
2.5.
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Figure 7 |
Figure 8 shows the total number of overseas visitors to Japan. Foreign visitors to Japan have numerous problems driving in the country: Cars drive in the opposite lane, they cannot read the writing on signs, and so on. There are a number of other more important reasons for their difficulties, but I think that enabling people to drive comfortably in the country is important in increasing the number of overseas visitors. As Figure 9 shows, the largest number of overseas visitors to Japan come from South Korea, Taiwan and the US.
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Figure 8 |
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Figure 9 |
(2) Non-Japanese-speaker-friendly navigation systems in rent-a-cars
I did tests using a driving simulator with some foreign students attending
my classes as subjects, which demonstrated a number of things. (Figure 10)
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Figure 10 |
For example, voice guidance is considered safe and is therefore employed in Japanese car navigation systems, but it doesn't necessarily work well in changed situations. Not only can non-Japanese-speakers not read the writing on the maps, but they cannot understand the symbols used, and they cannot use the systems unless something is done about this. For example, in South Korea there are many places where drivers can make U-turns, whereas in Japan U-turns are more or less not allowed. There are fairly significant differences in terms of this type of implicitly understood local regulation.
Driving in the wrong lane is a big problem, so we did a number of tests. If there is a vehicle in front there was absolutely no problem, so it was OK when following another vehicle. The problem arose when leaving a parking lot or when there were no other vehicles on the road. I think that this problem could be solved if map databases were added, and this would not involve too much modification of the on-board units.
In addition, the ability of the students to understand spoken Japanese was naturally limited, and so voice guidance cannot be relied on. The RDS-TMC system in Europe provides a very small amount of coded data, but it is fitted with a code-changing voice synthesis chip. This one little chip enables switching between languages, so that, for example, a Swedish person in Italy can listen to the Italian road regulations in Swedish. The next-generation VICS also requires a function like this.
5. A Harder ITS
Rather than “hard,” I probably should say “severe.” Since 9.11, the inspection of containers has become extremely stringent, and X-ray inspection equipment is being introduced in Japan's major ports.
Formerly, information concerning international distribution involved only the ships; when they reached land the nature of the containers and where they were going was not closely monitored (Figure 11). VAN is what used to be called EDIFACT, but it has been changed to an Internet-compliant ebXML. I think that this can also be used with cell phones. Mobile technology is advancing independently of anti-terrorism strategies, and therefore a number of international organizations are cooperating in standardization.
How to approach media in the post-landing stage of distribution has not yet been clearly decided, but the data description language ASN.1 has been made part of the standards for data description functions.
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Figure 11 |
The US will presumably urge these anti-terrorism measures on nations around the world. As a result, there is a possibility that they will fulfill an extremely important global function as a distribution information system. The hardware which will be used in this system is closely connected to the automated cruise system which I will now go on to discuss.
6. Simpler Automated Cruise
(1) Disaggregating automated cruise functions
By “simpler automated cruise,” I mean to suggest that if we restrict the
areas in which the system is applied and the functions employed, various
possibilities
become open to us. This is just a tentative personal proposal.
Let's look at aeronautic auto-pilot systems for a moment. Before the plane takes off the basic route is determined and programmed into the inertial guidance system, which functions to minimize deviations from the route. Large airplanes generally have collision avoidance equipment which is separate to this system.
In the case of automated cruise of vehicles, the issue is mode of driving rather than route, as shown in Figure 12. However, this is not being extensively discussed. It is rather the technological points listed here in category B which are receiving a great deal of discussion. My idea is very simple: Because the aims in category C can basically be achieved with current technologies, if we give some more consideration to categories A and B, we may be able to realize a variety of possibilities in these areas.
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Figure 12 |
(2) In stages from trailer/truck driver support systems
We already have ETC interchanges. Let us imagine that new ETC interchanges
will be constructed close to goods distribution centers. If we add to this
a specialized automated cruise system for goods distribution, I believe we
can generate a variety of ideas. (Figure 13)
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Figure 13 |
The purpose of this type of system would be to reduce environmental impact, to increase the efficiency with which road space is used and to reduce the number of personnel required for distribution. It is important for us to ultimately aim to reduce the number of personnel to zero, but a simple rule of thumb for the moment would be using one-third the present number of personnel for three trailer trucks. Given that there are no problems according to the current laws if the vehicles run between ETC interchanges, and there would be no difficulties as long as they did not run on ordinary roads, the system seems possible. If we introduced it, we would increase the efficiency with which road space is used.
With respect to reducing environmental impact, why don't we consider strategies focusing on the mode of driving? ISA is basically a vehicle control concept, but it can also be used to reduce environmental impact and protect the environment.
Figure 14 shows a conceptual diagram of what my team is working on. In this case, driving at V1 for period S, the vehicle encounters a traffic congestion at V1×S, and, naturally, this reduces its speed. If speed control is applied and the vehicle runs at the low speed of V3 from the beginning, it is able to arrive at the same time, but its trip is a little smoother. I did not invent this idea; it is already being tested via simulations in Germany and other countries. It has recently been reported that this system has been road tested in France.
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Figure 14 |
We conducted simulations to determine the effects of speed control plans A-D, assuming the establishment of beacons at the entrances of the Chofu and Kunitachi Fuchu interchanges. I would like you to note that the effects are greater than initial projections. (Figure 15)
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Figure 15 |
The introduction of this method did not significantly affect travel time or volume of traffic, factors between which there is a significant correlation at the tollgate at the exit. Changing the mode of driving without changing the travel time or the volume of traffic changes energy as shown in Figures 16 and 17. In the case of long-distances, we see that while there are effects, SPM increases, but this is a normal result of increased speed or increased distance, and therefore we don't need to be too concerned about it. NOx and CO2, by contrast, will probably decrease significantly.
The black solid lines show unobstructed driving in the simulation. Below this we see simulation results when speed control instructions are given. Not all vehicles slow down to the same speed; taking vehicle interaction into account, the driving mode follows the pattern you see here.
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Figure 16 |
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Figure 17 |
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Figure 18 |
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Figure 19 |
Our research focuses on the potential effects of increased numbers of beacons. What would happen when large objects like trailer trucks entered the interchange? And how should we respond to the fact that some vehicles will not follow the instructions? We are studying a variety of issues and perspectives, including the suggestion that if 10-20% of vehicles obey the instructions the traffic will be stable.
A variety of driving patterns, having different effects from the perspective of traffic safety and environmental protection, are produced by the speed instruction strategies employed in these simple simulations (Figure 20). Let's look at cases A, B and C, as shown in Figure 12. In case A, the driver will receive instructions concerning the required speed pattern. In case B, there is a driver in the lead vehicle; the connection to the trailers is effected through hardware. In case C, the vehicle should be fitted with various protective devices, such as ACC or automatic braking. This might be called semi-automated cruise, and if we start from this concept, then I think the system is realizable.
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Figure 20 |
The important thing is what is shown after C here. Whether there are potential users, that is, distributors, has not been studied by AHSRA, in part because to the present they have not focused exclusively on distribution. There would be considerable changes from the perspective of what could be transported and the type of packaging and containers to be used. First of all, the question of location would change. I believe that it will be comparatively easy to realize the system using the semi-auto-drive method I have mentioned. If we proceed on the basis of steadily accumulating experience, the idea of the system will be easier for potential users to understand.
Sending instructions concerning speed and driving pattern to drivers via DSRC, handling interaction between contents and containers via RFID, centering interaction with the outside in RFID and using DSRC to communicate with the outside would be one possibility. A concrete proposal here would be a combination of DSRC and RFID, which, as I discussed under the heading of “A Harder ITS,” will be employed as counter-terrorism measures, and partial or full automated cruise. (Figure 21)
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Figure 21 |
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Figure 22 |
7. Conclusion
Communications infrastructure has been the key point of my discussion today, but we have not reached any conclusion about what is best for ITS.
At any rate, there has been virtually no discussion of how we should deal with new communications methods for ITS use. Should they encompass all the functions of ITS? To achieve safety we will have to quickly regularize communications. Should they be the same as the methods used in private enterprise, or should they have different specifications? How to combine multiple methods of communication is also not being discussed.
In the ITS Info-communications Forum, DSRC and other methods are being discussed, but at present a reorganization of the Forum is being examined in order to enable the issues to be dealt with. This is because the present Forum has not produced perspectives which match e-Safety or Public Safety. Vehicle-to-vehicle communications, mobile communications and roadside communications are all connected to increased safety. Given this, the Forum is at present looking at the necessity of combining three or four groups to achieve increased safety. (Figure 23)
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Figure 23 |
In Japan, the use of communications between road and vehicle has progressed significantly: there are 3.5 million ETC-equipped vehicles, and between ten and twenty million vehicles are equipped with car navigation systems. A further item on the agenda in Japan, therefore, should be how to employ these in new systems, and how to best exploit already existing infrastructure.
With respect to what frequency should be used, we have arguments for 5.8 GHz, millimeter waves and UWV. Each has its own partisans, and they tell us what each is capable of. Looking from the perspective of the user, any frequency band is OK. If it works, use it; if it doesn't, don't. Unfortunately, to determine whether they work or not requires a great deal of money and a lot of specialists, and at present there is no shared ground for discussion.
In a similar way, looking in a little more detail at communications profiles and protocols, we can envisage a number of different systems in the future: road-to-vehicle, vehicle-to-vehicle, pedestrian-to-vehicle. When we do so, a variety of different ideas for media occur to us.
A number of different systems can be used in the same frequency band: T-75 and 11 series, for example, or Bluetooth, which has similar capabilities but which differs in configuration. Naturally, there is an argument in favor of RFID. The range of options changes significantly depending on method of use and other factors, and here again we see the lack of shared ground in discussions on ITS.
The ITS Info-communications Forum are attempting to examine these issues in their own fashion, but until major points such as whether money can be made from communications, the purpose of which is safety, are discussed with companies which make profits from communications technologies, they are unable to make concerted efforts, and it is not clear with whom these issues should be studied.
If
we cannot say that we will make the services free for the sake of safety,
should we make the communications methods independent for the sake of safety?
This does not require a decision at present, but discussions to date have
tended to be inconsistent, because we have not commenced from a basis of
a certain
level of shared understanding. What is required now is that we clear up
the
issues I have mentioned before proceeding with discussions.
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